Prediction Market Monthly Tracker: Strong Momentum Across Platforms

研报英文原文证据摘录

Prediction Market Monthly Tracker: Strong Momentum Across Platforms

Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges

Equity Research

July 2, 2026

Prediction Market Mix By Category (Kalshi & Polymarket)

We have aggregated prediction markets trading volumes across Kalshi & Polymarket broken out by category. As Kalshi and Polymarket breakout their markets

across different categories, we have constructed normalized categories across both markets.

Exhibit 10 - Avg Daily Volumes By Category (Kalshi + Polymarket) Exhibit 11 - Monthly Indexed Volumes By Category (Kalshi + Polymarket)

Avg Daily Volumes* ($M) (K+P) (Indexed Dec-25 = 100)

2,500 Other 600

2,000 Climate & 500 Sports

Weather 400 Crypto

1,500 Economics &

Business 300 Politics &

1,000 Politics & Elections

Elections 200

Economics &

500 Crypto Business 100

Sports Climate &

- 0 Weather

. *Prediction markets volumes aggregated across Kalshi & Polymarket . *Prediction markets volumes aggregated across Kalshi & Polymarket

Source: Artemis Analytics, TokenTerminal, Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Jefferies Source: Artemis Analytics, TokenTerminal, Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Jefferies

Exhibit 12 - Sports vs Non-Sports Volumes (Kalshi + Polymarket) Exhibit 13 - Sports vs Non-Sports OI (Kalshi + Polymarket)

Volumes Mix (%) Non-Sports Sports Open Interest* ($M) Sports Non-Sports

100% 1,400

1,200

80%

1,000

60% 800

40% 600

20%

0% -

Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

. *Prediction markets sports vs non-sports mix aggregated across Kalshi & Polymarket . *Prediction markets sports vs non-sports volumes aggregated across Kalshi & Polymarket

Exhibit 14 - Open Interest By Category (Kalshi + Polymarket) Exhibit 15 - Volumes Mix By Category (Kalshi + Polymarket)