Rockwell Automation | North America Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Rockwell Automation | North America Risk Reward Update

'25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 1 Jul

2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $650.00 BASE CASE $525.00 BEAR CASE $300.00

~35.0x blended F'27/28 EPS of $18.51 ~33.5x blended F'27/28 EPS of $15.76 ~23.5x blended F'27/28 EPS of $12.70

Coming off of a low-teens F'25 exit rate, we Normalized seasonality in F'26 supporting We model L-MSD organic growth through

model HSD growth in F'26 followed by HSD- MSD+ organic coming off a strong F'25 exit F'28, as macro and policy uncertainty drive

LDD in F'27/28 as large projects convert to rate. We model another 250bps+ of continued project delays, limiting capex

orders and revenue through 2H. Strong segment margin expansion in F'26 on unlock and organic acceleration. Margin

incrementals should drive 200-300bps volume leverage and productivity. With expansion should continue, but less so than

annual margin expansion, capitalizing on improving demand and structural F'25, as slower growth limits leverage

cost out initiatives and outsized volume improvement in the cost profile, we forecast benefits. Our ~23.5x multiple represents a

leverage. Our ~34.5x multiple represents a MSD+ organic and ~35% incrementals mid teens premium to the S&P and in line

~70% premium to the S&P, in line with continuing in F'27/28.