2Q26 Preview: Policy Support, Diversification & Self-Help drive Earnings Gains

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: Policy Support, Diversification & Self-Help drive Earnings Gains

2H26 and beyond. At the same time, start, contributing €18m in just one quarter

APAM's diversified geographic footprint and business mix provide an important source of (12% of the €150m target by 2028), while

resilience. Beyond the improving EU backdrop, Alloys & Specialities continues to benefit from the base dividend was maintained at €2.00/

healthy exposure to LNG, electrical & electronics and aerospace end-markets, providing an share.

additional growth lever that is largely independent of EU stainless recovery.

Balance Sheet - Focus on Deleveraging and Capital Returns: FY26 capex guidance

is unchanged at €200m, including biological assets, with targeted growth investments Exhibit 1 - Aperam: EV/EBITDA (x)

supporting the Leadership Journey transformation program. We model slightly lower Net 10x9x

7.0x 7xDebt vs Q1 at €994m supported by ~€50m working capital outflows. For FY26 we reiterate 8x 6x 5.7x

confidence in APAM's deleveraging plan and forecast Net Debt of €860m, which translates to 5x4x 5.1x

a leverage ratio of 1.7x. Capital returns remain disciplined, with the €2/share base dividend 3x2x

secured (€0.5 paid in Q1), while structurally improving working capital efficiency supports the

longer-term path to a normalised €700-800m EBITDA by 2028. .Source: Factset, JefferiesEV/EBITDA (x) 10yr avg 5yr avg

Valuation - Reiterate Buy; Unchanged Investment Thesis: We keep our 2026E EBITDA flat at

€ 508m (€514m VA cons) and raise 2027E by 2% to €694m (€720m VA cons) to reflect a back-

ended improvement in the macro backdrop (lower imports leading to higher utilization rates)

despite muted demand and geopolitical uncertainty.