Global Data Watch: Asia: Consolidation after the surge in EMAX

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Data Watch: Asia: Consolidation after the surge in EMAX

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

03 July 2026

Global Data Watch: Asia

Consolidation after the surge in EMAX

EMAX: Consolidation after the surge Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

After growing at a scorching pace of almost 6% for four quarters, EMAX growth

Sajjid Z Chinoy

is expected to moderate towards a more trend-like pace from 2Q onwards though

(91-22) 6157-3386

risks are clearly skewed to the upside. Just in the last week we have marked up sajjid.z.chinoy@jpmorgan.com

growth in Singapore and Thailand, and upside risks are also looming in other Asian JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Mumbai Branch

economies. The June PMIs appear consistent with some downshifting in 2Q Anusha Mital

growth, but read in conjunction with previous months, reflect some consolidation (91-22) 6157-4113

at elevated levels after the recovery in 2025 (Figure 1). Across economies, the PMI anusha.mital@jpmchase.com

declined notably in Korea and Indonesia while firming in Thailand, reflecting J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

relative performance. This is consistent with the downshift in 2Q GDP in Korea

after an exceptionally boomy 1Q, and the fact that growth prospects have improved

Research Notes

in Thailand while receding in Indonesia.

Tariffs on Asia: Running to stay in the same place

Figure 1: EMAX manufacuring PMI consolidates after a surge

DI, sa Data Watches

56 Japan

Output Headline mfg. Australia and New Zealand

Greater China

52 Korea

50 ASEAN

India

2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan

While tech momentum is still strong, there is some cooling from the unsustainably

boomy pace of previous months in recent tech IP prints in Korea and Taiwan

(Figure 2 and 3).