Market Thoughts (and Global Strategist Worries), Parsing META News, Updating our Tech HW Model, Options Market Tea Leaves

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Market Thoughts (and Global Strategist Worries), Parsing META News, Updating our Tech HW Model, Options Market Tea Leaves

ort – if even true - is about monetizing legacy compute (as FundaAI suggests), selling access

to Spark and its other models, increasing scale to lock up compute and/or reduce costs, or more ominously an admission that –

only a few months after talking up their model roadmap, signing LTAs with memory makers and reducing headcount (while

hiring for compute) – they’re now improbably saddled with excess compute. The company hasn’t commented at all on the article,

but my conversations yesterday revealed a strong divide between generalists & internet folks (who view this as META being

a good steward of capital/giving itself an out, i.e. incrementally -ve for the AI capex story) and semi/hardware folks like me

(who view it merely as a de-risking of cloud concerns, perhaps – as Jeff Pu argues - also making it easier to raise capital to keep

spending).

I also want to re-flag that JPM’s options traders on Tuesday shared an interesting recap of the quarter, underscoring that

2Q was a strange spot up/vol up environment (e.g. stocks and options got more expensive simultaneously – stocks rallied, but fear

rose…reflecting an insatiable eagerness for AI upside); long vega was the winning trade. For most of the past year, investors have

bought vol in semis/memory (NVDA, MU, MRVL, SMH) and sold in hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META)

to fund those bets. The market has already priced a lot of AI optimism into long-dated options, which are now expensive. Equities

are making big moves day to day — but not in one clean direction — so short-dated options are paying off if you actively trade

around them; and hyperscale vol also looks interesting to own.