2Q26 Preview: NGLs Setup, Nat Gas Macro and Power Demand In Focus

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2Q26 Preview: NGLs Setup, Nat Gas Macro and Power Demand In Focus

export capacity additions,

and RRC's positioning. With strong NGL realizations in 1H26, we believe the company will likely

reiterate the ’26 NGL realizations guide that was increased to Mont Belvieu +$1.25 to +$2.50/bbl

from +$0.00 to +$1/bbl with 1Q26 earnings. We model it towards the high end of the guide. 2)

Power: Update on in-basin power demand growth and progress on gas supply agreements will

remain in focus. 3) Liquids vs Dry Gas Activity Mix: Update (if any) to the activity mix plans (near-

term activity focused on liquids-rich wells, with ’27 focus expected to shift toward a heavier dry gas

allocation). 4) Macro: Mgmt. view on US natural gas supply and demand dynamics for the next

12-18 months, considering the expected addition of Permian takeaway capacity and Appalachia

positioning. Focus also on LNG outlook commentary. 5) FCF Allocation: With strong balance

sheet positioning and expected robust FCF, focus will remain on strategy towards acceleration in

shareholder returns. We expect RRC to end ’26 with net debt of ~$522mn at our pricing deck, with

the company generating FCF (pre working capital) of ~$1bn for the year. At strip, we estimate net

debt of ~$659mn at YE26 and FCF of ~$935mn for the year. 6) 3-Year Outlook: Update (if any)

to the 3-year outlook for growing production by ~400 mmcfepd to ~2.6 bcfepd by ’27 and activity

strategy post ‘27.

Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst

Valuation: At our pricing deck (Ex.1), we estimate ‘26/’27/’28 EBITDA of ~$1.8/$2.0/$2.0bn on total +1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com

production of ~2.37/2.62/2.65 bcfepd, which remain largely unchanged vs our prior estimates.

Rahul Kakkar * | Equity Analyst

Reiterating Hold rating and PT of $43.