2Q26 Preview: ME Disruption Weighs on Results, but Recovery Expected in 2H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: ME Disruption Weighs on Results, but Recovery Expected in 2H26

Global | HK Retailers

Samsonite International EquityJulyResearch2, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview: ME Disruption Weighs on

RATING BUYResults, but Recovery Expected in 2H26

PRICE HK$13.62^

We expect Samsonite to report 2Q26 sales of US$843m (-2% YoY cc) and

HK$20.10 (HK$22.33) |

adj. EBITDA of US$112m (-21% YoY), with margin at 13.2%. The Middle PRICE TARGET | % TO PT +48%

East conflict is likely to weigh on travel demand and consumer sentiment, 52W HIGH-LOW HK$21.98 - HK$13.10

impacting results across key markets, while Asia remains resilient. We FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 83.7% | 8.13

lower our TP to HK$20.1 (from HK$22.33), in line with earnings revision. MARKET CAP HK$19.5B | $2.5B

Maintain Buy as we view the disruption as temporary and remain positive TICKER 1910 HK

on long-term global travel growth. ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

We expect Samsonite to report 2Q26 adj EBITDA of US$112m, down 21% YoY on a reported

basis, implying an EBITDA margin of 13.2%, compared with 16.3% in 2Q25 and 13.1% in 1Q26. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

We forecast sales of US$843m, representing a 2% YoY decline in constant currency terms, 2026 2027 2026 2027

with an estimated 0.5% FX headwind in the quarter. REV -1% -1% -2% -1%

EPS -15% -14% NA NA

Samsonite is likely to feel the full-quarter impact of the Middle East conflict, which has

negatively affected both international air travel and consumer sentiment (Fig. 6–7). By region,

we forecast constant-currency sales declines of 3% in North America, 6% in Europe, and 4% 2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

in Latin America during 2Q26. In contrast, Asia should remain in positive growth territory, EPS -- -- -- -- 0.17