Playing Offense Amid Preferred Anxiety

研报英文原文证据摘录

Playing Offense Amid Preferred Anxiety

(MM)

issuance), we see maximum downside PT at $8.5 (19% upside). Current implied dividend payments

could represent 20%-25% of FCF from FY26-30, reinforcing the need for a refi.

Exhibit 1 - ARRY is down 27% vs. NXT/SHLS

Shares have underperformed peers (NXT/SHLS), we see a setup for positive revisions. ARRY has up 23%/4% over the same period

notably underperformed peers YTD, which we attribute to peers leaning into diversification thesis (NXT/ ARRY Shares Have Notably Underperformed Peers in 6-mos

SHLS: +4%

ARRY:SHLS expanding into BESS in particular). We see a setup for recovery given: (1) Potential for ARRY to $180$160 NXT: +23%

diversify more meaningfully (eBOS) and (2) Given 80% of the backlog converting in next six quarters, $140 -27%

$100= $120which implies FY26 revenues to ~$1.55bn, +6% vs. cons and a setup for positive guidance revision

Index $100($1.4bn to $1.5bn). See exhibit 3.

$80

2Q26 - Focus on order intake momentum. We expect 2Q26 rev/EBITDA of $320mn/$51mn, $60Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

+2%/+15% vs. cons, driven by a stronger domestic business (where the backlog is primarily . ARRY SHLS NXT

Source: JEF Research, FactSet

concentrated) and a weaker, but sequentially recovering international business. We expect investor Investors have been asking for more

focus to anchor around continued momentum in orders (given ~2x book-to-bill in last two quarters) meaningful market cap—with more stability

for signs of execution and success in the domestic market. Separately, focus will remain around and diversification thru the cycle; we see

margin inflection, which we see driven by a stronger domestic pricing environment. We nudge higher the moment as speaking to consolidation