Hanwha Aerospace: 2Q26 earnings to beat with Poland volumes back on deck; order conversion debate remains front and center

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hanwha Aerospace: 2Q26 earnings to beat with Poland volumes back on deck; order conversion debate remains front and center

ecasts (FYE Dec)

several order-related catalysts ahead, and its exposure from land to missiles.

Adj. EPS (W)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• 2Q26 earnings preview: We expect Hanwha Aerospace’s 2Q26 sales of Q1 1,886 5,056A 10,852

W7.5T, largely in-line with Street estimates, but OP to be at W1.2T, 20% above Q2 4,228 11,126 13,290

Street estimates. We expect 2Q26 OPM of 15.5% (land systems at 27% vs 17% Q3 9,436 13,278 15,538

in 1Q), with Poland sales resuming meaningful contribution on robust Q4 12,266 19,473 18,884

FY 27,247 48,933 58,564

shipment data through Feb-April, while continuing Egypt and Australia sales

momentum. We assume Poland sales could range from W700-900B including Style Exposure

ammunition and we assume export OPM at mid-30% levels. Upside risk to our

2Q estimate could come from favourable FX, while Hanwha Ocean could also

be a driver for the 2Q earnings beat.

• Order updates: Visible orders that could come out in 2026 include: 1)

Romania K9 EC2 worth W900B, 2) Poland K9 EC3 worth W7T (308 units

which could be split into multiple orders with different localization contents),

3) Saudi Redback worth c.W10T, 4) Spain K9, 5) UAE K9, 6) ME L-SAM, and

7) Chunmoo rocket orders with various ranges (80km-290km) from Chunmoo

customers including Poland. Other orders that could see development include

US K9 worth $10B, Canada K9+Redback (depending on CPSP outcome) and

Egypt Chunmoo.

• 2Q26 earnings checklist (please refer to table 1): Hanwha Aerospace’s 2Q

debate remains centered on export order conversion and margin quality,

particularly how much Poland-driven volume returns and trends along with

sales/OPM trajectory of profitable Romania orders.