Baltic Classifieds Group: First Take FY26 - A small miss at YE; FY27 guidance implies a 4% cut to consensus EBITDA expectations for 2027

研报英文原文证据摘录

Baltic Classifieds Group: First Take FY26 - A small miss at YE; FY27 guidance implies a 4% cut to consensus EBITDA expectations for 2027

Marcus Diebel AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-4447 02 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

marcus.diebel@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Baltic Classifieds Group (Underweight; Price Target: 177p)

Investment Thesis

We fully appreciate BCG’s outstanding market position in the Baltic region, with market

leading (if not dominant) Classifieds operations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. While we

still see room to further drive ARPU and customer numbers with improved monetization of

BCG’s Classifieds portfolio, we do anticipate, after the recent margin reset, that investment

requirements will also remain high going forward. Cost inflation (headcount) has been well

flagged by management and the company also sees IT costs increasing with rising token

usage. Despite the share price weakness in recent weeks, we argue for more downside.

Given our updated financial growth profile of c.9% EBITDA CAGR, factoring in continued

investment in tech and marketing, and an in our view already generous (versus peers) target

valuation at 13.0x 26E EV/EBITDA, we see further downside and reiterate our UW rating

on the name.

Valuation

We set an SOTP-derived December 2027 Price Target of 177p.

BCG, SOTP, FY27E

EBITDA 27E (€m) 27E EV/EBITDA Value

Enterprise Value 73 13.0x 953

Net Debt (Cash) 123

Other adjustments 0

Associates & Minorities 0

Equity Value € 830

Equity Value £ 728

Shares outstanding 439

Equity Price as of Apr-27 (p) 166

Price Target Dec-27 177

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Risks to our rating and price target include: 1) macroeconomic sensitivity in the Baltic