Agency MBS Special Topics: Securitized Products - North America

研报英文原文证据摘录

Agency MBS Special Topics: Securitized Products - North America

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026Agency MBS Special Topics

Securitized Products - North America

Research Analysts

H1 recap, near-term expectation for the basis US Securitized Products

Paul Nikodem - NSI

paul.nikodem@nomura.com

+1 212 667 2130

Save the date: Rohit Sinha - NSI

Nomura’s Securitized Products and US economics research teams will host a Mid-Year Rohit.Sinha@nomura.com

outlook call on 14 July at 3:00PM EST. Please register here for the call. +1 212 298 4905

Vivek Chauhan - NSI

vivek.chauhan@nomura.com

The MBS basis tightened by 11bp in Q2 despite the selloff in 10yr Treasury yields. While + 1 212 667 2290

MBS CC spreads are wider than 2025 year-end levels, the widening is largely attributable Shreya Pal - NSI

to interpolation effects rather than underperformance of production coupons. MBS shreya.pal1@nomura.com

outperformed their Treasury curve hedges across the coupon stack in 2026 H1 (by 8-32 + 1 212 667 2183

ticks).

MBS supply-demand technicals improved materially in 2026. Although net issuance

was modestly higher, this was met with increased demand from GSEs, overseas investors

and passive ETFs. However, the recent slowdown in GSE demand suggests increased

risk that the GSEs may not complete $200bn of purchases this year. In addition, risk of

rate hikes recently has prompted some investors to adopt a more cautious stance toward

MBS in the near term.

We remain neutral on the MBS basis in the very near term as supply approaches its

seasonal peak over the next three to five weeks, but maintain a favorable outlook for the

back half of the year. We expect bank demand to increase in Q4 driven by elevated

excess deposit growth and increased clarity around bank regulations. This, coupled with