Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Tronox Holdings Plc-Class A (TROX.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

28 Jul 2026 - 03

EBITDA ($) 336 334 475 525 Q2 2026 Tronox Holdings PLC Earnings Release

Aug 2026

03 Nov 2026 -

FCF ($) (281) (20) 87 64 Q3 2026 Tronox Holdings PLC Earnings Release

09 Nov 2026

Leverage 9.0 9.2 6.4 5.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

TiO2 prices - Tronox is skewed toward more RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

"functional" TiO2 customers Chinese Ti02 exports decline on higher sulfur

Vertical integration/zircon exposure can and anti-involution Sales / 3,245

protect/drive margins across cycles Interest rates decline & TiO2 volumes and Revenue 3,020 3,258

Improved utilization of Cristal's asset base and prices recover ($, mm) 3,142

cost improvement program savings Cost savings earlier and greater than expected

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 26

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBIT

Higher interest rates for longer creates further 21 62

($, mm)

0-10% Latin America downside to vol/px 44

0-10% MEA Chinese TiO2 exports accelerate

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Vertical integration/self-help benefits fall short 20-30% 334 China and India and limit cash flow optionality EBITDA

20-30% North America 321 363 ($, mm)

30-40% Europe ex UK 346

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 47.5% (1.54)

EPS

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x ($) (1.58) (0.96)

(1.25)

HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research