EOG Resources: Expecting Numbers to Beat, Although Focus on Type Curves & ME Shale

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EOG Resources: Expecting Numbers to Beat, Although Focus on Type Curves & ME Shale

USA | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

EOG Resources EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEExpecting Numbers to Beat, Although Focus on

RATING BUYType Curves & ME Shale

PRICE $128.59^

EOG has been the best performing large cap oil equity YTD driven by the

combination of type curves results, investor positioning, and mkt anticipating PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $175.00 ($170.00) | +36%

incremental data on Middle East shale results. We model production growth 52W HIGH-LOW $151.87 - $101.59

from the Utica delivering an oil beat while improved Delaware well productivity FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.1% | 511.81

to begin the year reverting to the mean. Mkt watching type curves and waiting MARKET CAP $69.6B

on Middle East shale update. TICKER EOG ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

2Q Preview. We expect EOG to beat on the quarter as higher volumes deliver CFPS of $8.24, ~4%

above the street at $7.93/share. We find crude oil production at the upper end of the guidance

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

range (546-551mbopd) at 551 mbopd vs street at 549mbopd as the Utica drives sequential growth.

2026 2027 2026 2027

Improving Delaware well productivity has been a focus for investors, however, mgmt commentary

EBITDA -2% NM +4% +15%

for similar y/y well mix leads us to believe 1Q was driven by its allocation to primary zones (3rd

EPS -3% NM +7% +30%

BS / Upr WC) at 57% vs 46% in ’25. The trend of improving early well results has been a seasonal

phenomena with three of the four most productive quarters (’24-’26) occurring in 1Q, followed by

a higher allocation to Reeves county in 2Q-3Q and lower productivity. A reversion to the mean 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY