Lowering Estimates For UK Sale Post Management Catch Up; Maintain Hold

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lowering Estimates For UK Sale Post Management Catch Up; Maintain Hold

1 July 2026

Sun Communities, Inc

Figure 1: UK Sale Dilution Analysis - Assuming redeployment of proceeds into acquisitions in the mid-4's and the

rest into share buybacks at current levels, we estimate ~5% core FFO/sh dilution from the transaction.

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,CompanyFilings,BloombergFinanceLP

The sale is reflected in our updated FY26/FY27 core FFO/sh estimates of

$6.83/$7.05 (vs. $6.95/$7.37 prior). The main difference between our updated

estimates and our initial dilution analysis is timing, as our estimates assume the

sale closes mid-3Q vs. the 2-3 month timeline from announcement to closing

estimated by the company. We model redeployment of the proceeds as follows:

1) 50% ($515M) into acquisitions ratably over the NTM starting in 3Q26

($129M/quarter) at a 4.4% year-one cap rate. Management indicated in

our follow-up call after the sale announcement that US Manufactured

Housing (MH) and Recreational Vehicle (RV) assets are trading at cap

rate in the low-4’s, and they believe they can generate an incremental

~30 bps of yield per year based on their operation of the assets.

2) 50% ($515M) into share repurchases ratably over the NTM starting in

3Q26 ($129M/quarter) at a wtd avg price of $126.09 (5.7% implied cap

rate).

US RV Business Off to Strong Start In 1Q26, But 2Q26 Impacted By Adverse

MDW Weather

SUI’s transient RV business is still the primary risk worth monitoring, as the

company slightly lowered its top-line growth estimate from a ~1.5% Y/Y decline

(as of the 4Q25 earnings call) to a ~1.9% Y/Y decline (as of the 1Q26 call). US RV

NOI (which includes both annual & transient) grew +6.3% in 1Q26, putting SUI

well ahead of its FY26 guidance pace (0.0% to +1.8%).