Oruka Therapeutics Inc Preview: H2 28-week Efficacy Data and Initial Durability Should Look Strong; PT to $130

研报英文原文证据摘录

Oruka Therapeutics Inc Preview: H2 28-week Efficacy Data and Initial Durability Should Look Strong; PT to $130

ld further validate the Q6/12M dosing profile.

We also anticipate Phase IIb dose-ranging data for ORKA-001 to support Phase III dose

selection. At this stage, we view the program as largely de-risked, with the Phase IIb

study focused more on optimizing dose selection than demonstrating proof of concept,

similar to APGE's Phase IIb high-dose study. In addition, the Phase IIa study of ORKA-002

should generate initial psoriasis efficacy data. Overall, we see ORKA building a portfolio

approach across psoriatic diseases and beyond, with opportunities to expand into

additional indications such as IBD later this decade. Following a series of Phase II

readouts, ORKA could increasingly resemble a RXDX/APGE-type profile – a de-risked I&I

company approaching Phase III readiness and potentially well positioned for strategic

partnerships.

We increase our PT to $130 from $100 – which represents 30-40% upside from the

current stock levels into the H2 and 2027E. Our new PT is primarily supported by the

increase of 2035E unadjusted sales from $4B to $5B for the lead asset ORKA-001 –

adjusted with a 65% PoS (maintained). We maintain our conservative estimate of

unadjusted 2035 sales of $2.5B for ORKA-002 and a 30% PoS. We use a 2-2.5x EV/sales

multiple (unchanged and in line with comps) + ~$1B in forward cash should support a

$10-11B equity value - in line with the comps including RXDX and APGE and support

our $130 PT.

*The company has ~89M fully diluted shares including 78M common stock and

equivalents (including ~10M shares issued in the Apr follow-on financing), and 11M

dilutive securities, as of 3/31/2026.

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Oruka Therapeutics Inc 1 July 2026 ab 2