UBS Evidence Lab Inside: iPhone purchase intent mixed as the US and Europe rise but China falls

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UBS Evidence Lab Inside: iPhone purchase intent mixed as the US and Europe rise but China falls

Figure 24: Average age of the smartphone installed base Figure 25: Average age of installed base by region (years)Average

(months)AverageSource:UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset) Source:UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset)

Average age of an iPhone overall ticked lower HoH to ~22.1 months

Based on the survey data, we estimate that the average age of an iPhone in the installed

base is roughly 22.9 months, down ~0.8 months HoH and ~1.2 months YoY. The

responses are unsurprising in our view, considering that typically a degraded battery or a

broken phone are the main factors influencing an upgrade. While the durability of each

iPhone improves with each successive generation, increasing interest in Apple

Intelligence or an Apple foldable could portend upgrades amongst the installed base.

Figure 26: The average age of the iPhone installed base Figure 27: Average age of an iPhone in the base by region

(months)Source:UBS EvidencetickedLablower(> AccessHoHDataset)to ~23 monthsThe (years)AverageSource:UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset)

Smartphone replacement rate ticks higher as China surprisingly hits survey high

Across markets, the average consumer expects to upgrade their smartphone in ~30.8

months (+1.2 months HoH / -0.3 months YoY), slightly below the survey high of ~31.1

months. Notably, the average age excluding China, which typically refreshes at a higher

rate, was ~31.8 months (+0.4 months HoH / -1.2 months YoY). However, we note that

China reached a new survey high of~26.8 months compared to the previous ~23.7

month watermark. While still below average, the data point is worth monitoring in our

view considering China's historically faster upgrade rates.