Margin improvement prospects not priced in - upgrade to Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Margin improvement prospects not priced in - upgrade to Buy

12/27E 8.00 8.32 4 7.66

suggest some gradual demand improvements building up. Hence, we expect Tecan's

12/28E 9.15 10.77 18 8.95

organic sales growth to return to positive territory in FY26E and further improve into a

MSD-HSD range by FY29E on the back of intact underlying structural demand drivers Sebastian Vogel, CFA

across the industry, in our view. Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

Better supported sales growth allows more attention to operating margins +41-44 239 90 45

We expect that our positive view on the company's top line prospects should allow some Tanya Hansalik

operating leverage driven margin support for Tecan. However, we also expect this more Analyst

tanya.hansalik@ubs.com

supported top line backdrop to allow the company's mgmt. to further focus on its

+41-44-239-2053

previously initiated efficiency improvement and cost reduction program. As a result, we

now discount cost savings of around CHF29/30m in FY28/29E. Thus, we also anticipate Joern Iffert, CFA

EBITDA (UBS adj.) margins of 19.6% and 20.0% by FY28/29E. Analyst

joern.iffert@ubs.com

+41-44-239 88 00

Valuation: DCF-derived PT of CHF208

We reflect our revised estimates in our DCF-derived valuation of Tecan. However, we

maintain our long-term assumptions for sales growth and WACC at 7.8%/2.8%,

respectively. Overall, this drives our price target to CHF208 (previously CHF162).

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 1,074 934 883 884 951 1,014 1,085 1,163

EBIT (UBS) 169 111 (51) 96 121 151 168 184

Net earnings (UBS) 164 98 (66) 76 96 119 133 147

EPS (UBS, diluted) (CHF) 12.83 7.70 (5.30) 6.18 8.32 10.77 12.03 13.30

DPS (net) (CHF) 2.99 2.98 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.79