Securitization Aviation Debt Aircraft Market Update: May 2026 Mainline Passenger Storage: Weakened y-o-y, improved sequentially

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Securitization Aviation Debt Aircraft Market Update: May 2026 Mainline Passenger Storage: Weakened y-o-y, improved sequentially

1 July 2026

Aviation Debt

Mainline Passenger Aircraft Market Forecast for 2026-2029

and Historical Context

Comment: We believe that the market for passenger aircraft will continue to

tighten even with what we expect will be significant increases in new aircraft

production by both Airbus and Boeing, as well as the return to service of a

significant percentage of the approximately 650 relatively new narrowbody

A320neo aircraft currently in forced storage due to durability issues with their

Pratt & Whitney GTF engines. With narrowbody aircraft production rate increases

expected to outpace widebody production rate increases, we believe the

widebody market will likely see greater tightening of market conditions through

the end of the decade relative to the narrowbody market.

Figure 3: Western Mainline Passenger Total Fleet vs. Storage Forecast

Source: Cirium, Deutsche Bank Research

Comment: We believe that aggregate narrowbody production will increase from

just over 1,000 A320neo family and 737 MAX family, in aggregate, to just over

1,200 aircraft in 2026. By 2029, we expect narrowbody production (including the

Airbus A220) to increase to 1,700 aircraft. Even with this rise in production, we

believe that market for narrowbody aircraft will remain tight, in large part due to

the large number of older narrowbody aircraft (>25 years of age) that will need to

be replaced along with the need for new narrowbody aircraft to accommodate

traffic growth.

For widebody passenger aircraft, production challenges are acute, particularly for

the Airbus A350. We expect that production of widebody aircraft will climb from

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 9