Schneider: Cognite fits strategy, price raises questions

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Schneider: Cognite fits strategy, price raises questions

ble the 2021 value of $1.6bn, following a $150m Relative (%) 13.9 3.7 13.9 8.2

investment round lead by TCV (ex-OSIsoft investor). We think investors will justifiably Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

scrutinize the price paid given somewhat questionable value-creation from past software

deals. Q1 results from Aker indicate Cognite (one of their holdings) is up to $184m in Price Performance, 1YR

€320 1700annualized revenue and $128m in ARR, with Atlas AI customers up 5x yoy. Annualising Q1

sales shrinks the headline multiple by c1.5 turns to 16.8x, before accounting for the strong €300 1600

sequential acceleration over FY25 (Q1’25 annualised revs of $144m vs FY25 revs >$170m). €280€260 1500

We think the price paid is high, but seems anchored in what could be for 2026 another year €240 1400

of c.30% of ARR & revenue growth. On an EV/Sales-to-growth ratio Cognite comes down to €220

€2000.6x, vs for Aveva of 0.7x. A lot rests on how Schneider can market this move to investors on 1300

the call tomorrow morning. 07/25 09/25 12/25 03/26 06/26

SU.FP EDME

Strategic fit. Cognite started out as a ‘data liberation’ software provider, with ‘Cognite Data

Fusion (CDF)’, helping contextualize vast quantities of industrial data, allowing customers

access to real-time data on their equipment. We think a great deal of value is unlocked

as customers can then use this real-time data to enable self-learning and self-correcting

machines through Industrial AI. Cognite’s ‘Atlas AI’ builds on the industrial context derived

from CDF to enable agentic, industrial AI. Cognite reports in FY25 >70% of ARR bookings

were driven by and included Atlas AI (>86% as of Q1’26), with the number of customers

up c.700% yoy.