China Precious Metals: Muted near-term gold catalysts; be selective on gold equities

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Precious Metals: Muted near-term gold catalysts; be selective on gold equities

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

China Precious Metals Equities

AsiaMuted near-term gold catalysts; be selective on

gold equities Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

Analyst

sharon.ding@ubs.com

Near-term catalysts for gold remain muted +852-2971 6284

Interest rates are now the dominant swing factor for gold, and the setup does not look Suxi Zheng, PhD

supportive. Our multivariate regression model suggests that the sensitivity of gold prices Analyst

to rates has increased, making real yields key to monitor. The US dollar remains strong, suxi.zheng@ubs.com

the market is pricing in Fed hikes rather than cuts, and real yields continue to be the +852-3712 2601

main pressure point. Without softer inflation, less hawkish Fed signals or renewed safe- Joni Teves

haven demand, gold may struggle to find a clear catalyst. Our technical analysis Strategist

indicates that gold’s recent key support is US$3,950-4,000/oz, with a confirmed break joni.teves@ubs.com

downside likely at US$3,750/oz. Initial resistance is US$4,250/oz and a sustained move +65-6495 6851

above this could be the pivotal sign for a short-term bullish reversal.

UBS remains constructive on gold over the medium term

UBS's global team has lowered its 2026 gold price forecast to US$4,675/oz from US

$5,000/oz, while maintaining 2027/28 forecasts of US$4,800/oz and US$4,250/oz.

Near-term Fed repricing could cap upside, but we believe the core drivers of the gold bull

market remain in place: sustained EM central bank accumulation; rising sovereign debt

burden; recurring geopolitical risks; and the broader trends of reserve and monetary

diversification. Importantly, recent central bank sales should not be viewed as a regime

reversal.