3 Scenarios for Revaluation

研报英文原文证据摘录

3 Scenarios for Revaluation

Japan Insight

June 30, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MNifco (7988) Hayato Takashima

Equity Analyst

3 Scenarios for Revaluation Hayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.comShinji Kakiuchi +81 3 6836-5414

Shinji.Kakiuchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5416

We look for 1) faster rise in content value/vehicle due to wider

sales to S.Korea/China OEMs, 2) clearer reconfirmation of

superior profitability amid stronger headwinds, and 3) specific

actions for better capital efficiency (eg, buybacks). We stay OW.

OW, ¥5,800 PT: Since Feb 27 Nifco shares have underperformed on concerns over Nifco (7988.T, 7988 JT)

higher resin material costs tied to the Middle East, production cut risks, and a Auto Parts | Japan

pullback in expectations of better capital efficiency after the May 19 MTP Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

announcement. P/E of 10.4x on our F3/28 estimate is low historically and vs. peers. Price target ¥5,800

We see room for revaluation once the following 3 points are reconfirmed. Up/downside to price target (%) 20

Shr price, close (Jun 30, 2026) ¥4,834

1. Reaccelerated rise in value/vehicle to drive Japan/overseas profit: We forecast Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥450.2

Div yld (03/27e) (%) 2.5

F3/26-29 CAGR in content value/vehicle for Japan OEMs of +4.5% (Japan +3.7%,

Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

+5.2% overseas), and +4.0% for Korean OEMs, outpacing Nifco's medium-term plan

Revenue, net (¥bn) 352.7 360.5 381.1 400.1

(Japan +2.8%, Korean OEMs+2.8%). For J-OEMs, we expect contributions from

Operating profit (¥bn)* 48.1 52.0 59.0 62.0

model changes for the RAV4 and Corolla series and horizontal strategic product Recurring profit (¥bn)* 51.3 52.5 59.5 62.5

Net income (¥bn)* 34.1 35.3 40.7 42.2