United Airlines (UAL) / American Airlines (AAL) 2Q26 Preview: Raising estimates and PTs as demand holds and fuel moderates

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United Airlines (UAL) / American Airlines (AAL) 2Q26 Preview: Raising estimates and PTs as demand holds and fuel moderates

1 July 2026

U.S. Airlines

United Airlines (UAL) / American Airlines (AAL) 2Q26 Preview:

Raising estimates and PTs as demand holds and fuel moderates

We update our numbers to reflect a demand environment that’s held up, a more moderate David Vernon

+1 917 344 8333 fuel backdrop, and at UAL, modest 3Q capacity cuts. Like we said in our recent DAL update,

david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com the UAL / AAL story hinges heavily on fuel, which looks like it’s on the decline relative to our

prior estimates. Consensus still seems more cautious on fuel (many models possibly yet to

Justine Weiss reflect a downward refresh alongside Middle East peace talks), but if we’re actually on the

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justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com way down, we could see beats to consensus in the back half of the year for UAL / AAL.

Specialist Sales Expecting an in-line 2Q for UAL, but a beat for AAL. UAL is still guiding all-in fuel cost

to ~$4.30 for the quarter, so our 2Q fuel price is unchanged. Our TRASM estimate for the

Steve Song quarter has gone from +11.7% YoY to +11.9% (on higher load factor), as UAL pointed to

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steve.song@bernsteinsg.com a demand environment that’s been holding steady, even a bit better than they expected.

Leading demand strength is premium international / corporate bookings, low-end leisure

isn’t bad, main cabin is up less. Our adj. EPS for 2Q goes up 4% on a stronger top line

than we previously modeled, lands in-line with consensus (Exhibit 5), and still remains

within guided $1–$2 range given back during 1Q26 earnings. For AAL, we heard the same

commentary about the demand environment still looking strong, but not necessarily more