Western Europe Retailing - Specialty: NKE 4Q26; Weakness in Lifestyle, albeit strong momentum in Performance; material tariff refunds; read to ADS/PUM/JD

研报英文原文证据摘录

Western Europe Retailing - Specialty: NKE 4Q26; Weakness in Lifestyle, albeit strong momentum in Performance; material tariff refunds; read to ADS/PUM/JD

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Valuation

We set a €35.0 target price for PUMA on a 12-month basis, built on a DCF valuation. Our DCF model comprises a 10-year

explicit stage and a terminal value based on a 3% long-term growth assumption. We have a WACC of c.7% based on a risk-free

rate of 4.2%, an equity risk premium of 5.2% (in line with Citi estimates for their end-market revenue exposure) and an

adjusted beta of 1.

Risks

The following risks could impede the share price from reaching our target price:

Macroeconomic Risks. Growth in the sporting goods industry is dependent on consumer spending. Whilst PUMA has a broad

geographical portfolio, an abrupt economic downturn or outsized growth vs. expectations would pose a negative/positive risk

to sales development.

Input Cost Risks. Raw materials account for a significant portion of the group’s cost of sales. The prices of rubber, cotton,

polyester, or other materials are subject to the risk of sharp price changes (either up or down).

Customer Risks. PUMA works with a few key customers, which have the ability to exert pressure on group margins through

their scale and bargaining power. A number of these customers are also developing own-branded offers, increasing the

competitive environment.

Currency risk. The biggest currency risk arises from a mismatch of the currencies required for sourcing (primarily dollars) versus

the denomination of sales. A strengthening/weakening in the US dollar would therefore exert pressure/materially reduce input

costs. We note that the group hedges currency on a rolling 12-15-month basis in order to provide visibility on any pressures