China RatingDog PMI: Stabilization, Not Reflation

研报英文原文证据摘录

China RatingDog PMI: Stabilization, Not Reflation

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

01 July 2026

China RatingDog PMI:

Stabilization, Not Reflation

• June RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 51.7. Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

• New orders remained resilient, but output and future output slowed.

Feng Zhu

• Export orders declined again, confidence softened, and employment gains look (852) 2800 1745

selective. feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com

• Price indices point to margin relief, not broad reflation. Tingting Ge

(852) 2800-0143

• We expect managed stabilization in 2H. Lower energy prices, a global IP/AI tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

cycle and possible fiscal catch-up are supportive, but trade uncertainty, weak Tongfang Yuan

consumer demand and limited pricing power still constrain recovery. (852) 2800-0085

tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

Consistent with NBS PMIs. RatingDog’s June manufacturing PMI points to

Jiayi Li

resilient manufacturing momentum, but not a broad demand-led upturn. The (852) 2800-5229

headline index came in below expectations, easing marginally to 51.7 (J.P. jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

Morgan: 52.1; consensus: 52.0) from 51.8, but stayed above 50 for a seventh JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

consecutive month and delivered the strongest quarterly average since 4Q 2020.

New orders expanded for a thirteenth month, matching the longest expansion

sequence since 2018, while output increased for a seventh month and remained

above its long-run trend. The April-May soft patch has stabilized, supported by

genuine order flow rather than inventory adjustment.

Export orders declined again to 49.4, albeit marginally, suggesting that export

resilience is becoming more contested as front-loading fades and tariff uncertainty