Stronger Heat Domes Hurt Productivity, Likely Trigger 2027-30 Adaptation Capex

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Stronger Heat Domes Hurt Productivity, Likely Trigger 2027-30 Adaptation Capex

USA | Chemicals EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

Chart 1 - Drag On Global Labor Productivity InStronger Heat Domes Hurt Productivity, Likely

3 Degree Celsius Scenario

Relative To 1986-2005 BaselineTrigger 2027-30 Adaptation Capex

Heat stress will likely pepper Q2 earnings calls. We expect companies to frame

extreme heat as a volatility amplifier: it depresses labor productivity, alters

regional growth patterns, accelerates adaptation spending and makes short-

cycle demand signals unreliable. The US and EU population affected by the .Source: Lancet, Jefferies Estimates

current heat domes is ~50% higher than in 2024, with ~2x the number of people

experiencing temperatures >35ºC.

Heat Domes...: Investor questions about heat waves tend to focus on drought events as a catalyst

for Buy-rated CTVA, but heat domes have broader effects when they impact population centers.

Four heat domes were flagged in Mexico, the US and Europe in 2024, two in 2025--and last week

an EU heat dome has coincided with two in the US that have effectively merged. We estimate

heat domes affected 330-440m people in 2024 (100-180m >35ºC) and 500-575m people in 2025

(160-245m >35ºC), whereas the current heat domes affect 580-630m (240-370m >35ºC).

... A Recurring Operating Shock...: Heat domes appear to be increasingly a recurring operating

variable affecting labor availability, asset utilization and infrastructure reliability. The implication

for industrial companies is less about physical asset damage and more as a catalyst for more

frequent disruptions tied to worker absenteeism, safety protocols, maintenance schedules, power

reliability (e.g. French nuclear plant shutdowns ~7% of demand) and logistics bottlenecks. High heat