EM FX Daily Report - 1st July 2026. Wed Jul 01 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

EM FX Daily Report - 1st July 2026. Wed Jul 01 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 01 July 2026

EM FX

RUB More upward pressure on usd/rub yesterday as spot went higher towards 79.00. The recent

move has been mainly driven by local flows, but corporate RHS interest also added to the

momentum higher, while there was better supply by leveraged accounts. It will be important to

keep an eye on MoF announcement around fx interventions this week.

ZAR The rand traded better yesterday, likely on the back of the higher-than-expected BER inflation

expectations survey, but the move has since reversed, and the pair is now trading with broader

risk sentiment. I still think ZAR can outperform over the medium term, but ones needs to be

nimble in cash—adding and taking profit on outsized moves while keeping the medium-term

bias. Flows were mixed yesterday, with better real-money demand but better HF supply.

TRY USDTRY price action remained pinned close to state bank offers on back of corporate outflows

yesterday, but we have been seeing better inflows once again this morning with the quarter-end

out of the way. State banks are currently on the offer at 46.6775 in line with the expected crawl.

We continue to monitor local flows and there are still no meaningful signs of local retail

dollarisation. Political risk has also eased somewhat in recent weeks and our base case for

elections still remain closer to late-2027. Seasonally better current-account dynamics should

remain supportive for TRY in the near term. The current framework still requires continued

reserve rebuilding and supportive local behaviour, but the near-term flow picture remains

contained. We therefore remain long TRY.