Initiation of Coverage: Mispriced Share Gainer in an Undermonetized App Ad Market; Initiate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initiation of Coverage: Mispriced Share Gainer in an Undermonetized App Ad Market; Initiate Buy

period. Also, we think

that LFTO can deliver substantial S&M and G&A leverage but ongoing 'Adapters' build will hold back

mid-term margin expansion, leading us to model 2030 (outermost year) Adjusted EBITDA of 65.2% -

below our 80.0% estimate for APP but above the 39.8% for U.

EVIDENCE Our evidence includes: 1) gaming app ad market forecasts from eMarketer, 2) analysis of ad revenue

/ engaged mobile app user versus social media based on eMarketer data, 3) conversations with LFTO

customers / channel checks, 4) conversations with LFTO management team, and 5) analysis of LFTO

versus its competitor set.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Our EV / Adjusted target multiple of 14x would at current market price of $26, imply 3Q27-2Q28E

Adjusted EBITDA of $458M. This compares to UBSe $648M.Please

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

2.25 YR-CAGR Implied Revenue Adjusted Adjusted Valuedrivers Target Multiple

Revenue Growth ($M) EBITDA margins EBITDA ($M)

$52 upside 12% $1,107M 61% $670M 18x

$38 base 18% $1,080M 60% $648M 14x

$16 downside 20% $957M 56% $536M 8x

Source: UBSe

Company Description Liftoff Mobile, Inc. is an advertising technology platform which uses an AI machine learning model

(Cortex) to help advertisers (gaming / non-gaming) place ads across mobile apps. LFTO believes that

its app inventory access (through its supply platform), AI model and experienced management team

can help it deliver best-in-class return on ad spend (ROAS), thereby winning new clients and growing

wallet share with existing clients. Additionally, advertising enabled by LFTO helps app developers

monetize and therefore LFTO has managed to grow its SDK integrations (a technology that gives it