LatAm Transport and Capital Goods: Daily Take-Off: RAIL, WEG

研报英文原文证据摘录

LatAm Transport and Capital Goods: Daily Take-Off: RAIL, WEG

Global Research

29 June 2026ab

LatAm Transport and Capital Goods Equities

Latin AmericaDaily Take-Off: RAIL, WEG

Industrial

Alberto Valerio

RAIL: Grupo Ultra withdraws from the Rumo sale process Analyst

According to O Globo's Lauro Jardim column, Grupo Ultra (Ultrapar) has dropped out alberto.valerio@ubs.com

of the race to acquire Rumo. The transaction coordinator received a formal letter +55-11-2767 6918

last week notifying Ultra’s withdrawal. The article states that eight other Andressa Varotto

interested parties remain in the process. Potential Impact: We note that Rumo has Analyst

a poison pill that could be triggered at a 15% stake. If a company does not receive a andressa.varotto@ubs.com

waiver, it could mean an additional takeover premium. +55-11-2767 6654

Rafael Simonetti

RAIL: Malha Oeste concession ends after 30 years; auction planned for 4Q26 Associate Analyst

According to Folha, Malha Oeste reaches the end of its 30-year contract on Tuesday. rafael.simonetti@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6628

The ~1,900km network is currently idle on all stretches (cargo ceased at end-2025)

with Rumo citing a court-recognized "structural economic-financial imbalance"

dating to shortly after the concession began and says talks are underway to revert

the assets to the Union. The government is modeling a new auction for 4Q (ANTT

approved the studies in May and sent them to TCU) comprising ~R$29bn of

investment over the contract plus R$3.6bn of public funds, a main axis of 1,625km

(Corumbá–Mairinque), and a planned connection to MRS via the São Paulo Ferroanel.

Potential Impact: Neutral for Rumo. In our report, we considered a base case of -R

$1.7bn, with +R$3.6bn NPV from a fuel loss indemnity, a -R$3bn in concession fees