Australian Resources: AI, Debasement & Divergence

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Australian Resources: AI, Debasement & Divergence

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaAI, Debasement & Divergence

Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Sector trading with AI-sentiment & debasement unwind; prices set to diverge Analyst

Commodities & the miners have traded with AI-sentiment over recent months as well as lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

changing views on the debasement trade & the Middle East conflict. While AI-sentiment +61-3-9242 6387

& broader macro moves will continue to drive the overall sector, we expect further Levi Spry

divergence between commodities over the next 12 months due to differing Analyst

fundamental outlooks. With the downside risk from 'higher for longer' energy costs levi.spry@ubs.com

unwinding, we expect the market to focus on secular growth from electrification/AI with +61-3-9242 6709

structural deficits medium-term supporting a bullish outlook for copper, lithium & Dim Ariyasinghe

uranium. The ME conflict was the trigger for an unwind of the 'debasement' trade with Analyst

energy-driven inflation & hawkish Fed narrative resulting in: front-end rates repricing dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

sharply, US real yields rising & USD strengthening. While the key drivers of the gold bull +61-3-9242 6385

market remain in place, the near-term outlook is uncertain. Changes in supply outlook in Al Harvey

Indonesia create a more positive outlook for nickel and less favourable outlook for Analyst

aluminium, albeit in our view this is largely priced-in & the risk vs reward is improving. In al.harvey@ubs.com

an AI unwind trade scenario bulks are likely to be more defensive vs base metals and we +61-3-9242 6071

prefer thermal/met coal near-term over iron ore; the fundamentals for bulk prices Ben Wood

overall however remain relatively muted.