JPM TECH SKETCH: SE/GRAB/GOTO Q2 Previews, MSFT Another -2.5% RIF Coming, META Tried Buying Kalshi - Sorta

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM TECH SKETCH: SE/GRAB/GOTO Q2 Previews, MSFT Another -2.5% RIF Coming, META Tried Buying Kalshi - Sorta

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

01 July 2026

2Q26 results. Taking a long-term view, we remain OW on both SE and GRAB as we believe the Street is underestimating the

earnings potential of both platforms.”

• “GRAB – Market share gains likely to have continued into 2Q26. We anticipate mobility and delivery GMV growth of

18% and 20%, respectively. In our view, GRAB is outpacing industry growth and gaining market share, driven by its product-

led initiatives and platform advantage. We believe that on-demand industry shows strong network effects which are

benefitting GRAB. We forecast 2Q26E adj EBITDA of $160m (+47% yoy, +4% qoq). In our view, GRAB should comfortably

meet its 2026 adj EBITDA guidance of $700-720m (JPMe: $715m) with upside risk arising from the potential easing of macro

headwinds in the region. Our model does not yet incorporate the acquisition of Foodpanda Taiwan and consolidation of

Superbank.”

• “SE – Shopee likely to deliver strong growth but margins yet to inflect. We forecast 26% yoy GMV growth for Shopee in

2Q26. However, with continued investments (e.g. VIP Program), we believe any margin improvement (2Q26E JPMe: 0.61%

of GMV) is likely to be marginal despite the increases in take-rates. We anticipate continued growth in the fintech business

with adj. EBITDA growing to $287m (+12% yoy, +4% qoq). Our growth expectations are driven by the growing credit

portfolio, product suite and customers across SE’s geographies. We anticipate gaming to see a sharp decline in gross bookings

by 21% qoq as 1Q26 benefited from content collaboration.”

• “GOTO – Top-line growth is likely to be modest. We forecast ODS GTV growth to remain modest at 3% qoq/yoy. Adj