Australia Wealth Platforms: Positive markets largely offset lower flow estimates for 4Q; Checking in on hiring activity

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Australia Wealth Platforms: Positive markets largely offset lower flow estimates for 4Q; Checking in on hiring activity

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01 Jul 2026 08:03:59 ET │ 22 pages

Australia Wealth Platforms

Positive markets largely offset lower flow estimates for 4Q; Checking in

on hiring activity

Siraj Ahmed AC

CITI'S TAKE +61-3-8643-9781

We lower our 4Q net flow forecasts for HUB24 (reports on 21st Jul) and siraj.ahmed@citi.com

Netwealth (reports on 16th Jul) to reflect softer activity levels following recent Howard Suen

tax changes and a more cautious macro backdrop. Stronger market

performance and trading activity, however, results in slight upgrades to howard.suen@citi.com

revenue forecasts. We expect regulatory and compliance costs to continue

rising driven by heightened trustee scrutiny and increased focus on

platform’s role. While we see downside risk to VA consensus for FY27e

EBITDA for Netwealth (CitiE -3% below), we do see upside risk to revenue

from higher flows (e.g. Broker segment). We remain Buy rated on both

names, with target prices of $89.10 for HUB (-14%) and $25.35 for NWL (-

6%) with the changes reflecting lower peer multiples and lower longer-term

forecasts.

Tax changes and volatility are likely to result in a less seasonal 4Q — We lower our

4Q net flow forecasts, reflecting potential for lower adviser and client activity from a

combination of: i) recent Federal Budget tax changes; ii) higher interest rates; and iii)

market volatility amid the Middle East conflict. Over the medium term, however, we

view the tax changes as supportive of demand for financial advice and broader

market participation (Class could also benefit from increase in SMSFs). For 4Q, we

forecast net flows of $4.2 billion for HUB24, up 6% qoq which includes $150 million