Equity Technical Update: Medium-Term Bull Trend Intact but We Are Monitoring Two Key Risks

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Equity Technical Update: Medium-Term Bull Trend Intact but We Are Monitoring Two Key Risks

Jason Hunter AC Global Markets Strategy

(1-212) 270-0034 01 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

S&P 500 Index rally stalls, but holds above key medium-term support...buy early-summer dips, but a more concerning

setup could form by Labor Day

The S&P 500 Index rally has stalled at the upper end of a set of longer-term trend channels that have defined the secular bull

market since the March 2009 post-GFC low. Those lines currently sit at 7347-7840 (Figure 2TheS&P50Indexralyhasstaledattheuperendofthelonger-termtrendchanelthathasdefinedthesecularbulmarketthatstartedinearly-209andaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis.). The drop from the 7617 early-June

peak and subsequent break below the fastest moving trend-following signal levels near 7380 derailed the short-term bullish

momentum. However, the coiling price action through June looks more like a consolidation than a distribution pattern in the

classical sense (Figure 3.Thecoilingpriceactionthathasformedbelowthe7617early-Junepeakandat7347-7840longer-termchanelresistanceloksmorelikeaconsolidationthanadistributionpaternintheclasicalsense.Westilsekeymedium-termtrendsuportinthe70-720areaandthinkanearly-sumerdipintothatsuportwouldrepresentatradablebuyingoportunity.However,wealsobelievethemoretwo-directionalpriceactionbelowlonger-termchanelresistancehasthepotentialtoevolveintoadistributionpaternbytheendofsumerandaheadofthebearishSept-Octseasonalperiod.). At the index level, the converging trend lines that define the pattern lean that way. Furthermore, indexes

like the S&P 500 equal weight, Russell 2000, and EURO STOXX 50 all still have positive trend dynamics, none of which have