Malaysia consumer: Pulse check – June 2026

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Malaysia consumer: Pulse check – June 2026

Nomura | Malaysia consumer 1 July 2026

Fig. 1: Total wholesale & retail sales and volumes (% y-y) Fig. 2: MYR depreciates against USD & CNY in June

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research

Source: DOSM, Nomura research

MYR depreciates vs USD and CNY in June

The Malaysian ringgit (MYR) depreciated by 2.5% m-m in June, and currently trades at

4.06/USD, after appreciating slightly in May 2026. On a YTD26 basis, the MYR is flat vs the

USD. This is slightly weaker than the Nomura Economic team’s 2026F USD/MYR forecast

of MYR4.01 (link). We expect domestic demand to remain robust, led by strong investment

spending which is, in turn, being helped by the implementation of the government’s

structural reforms. The record-highapprovedinvestments in 2025 should start to

materialize this year, particularly in the Johor-SingaporeSpecialEconomicZone, alongside

progress in connectivity-boosting infrastructure projects. In addition, we think private

consumption will continue to be supported by strong labor market conditions. The

unemployment rate was stable at 2.9% in March compared to February in January, for the

latest readings (please see our report – NomuraLabourMarketConditionsIndicator[LMCI]

).

Export growth accelerated to 36.9% y-y in April from 12.7% in 1Q26, with fairly broad-based

improvements. Electronics exports should continue to benefit from a sustained tech uptrend.

Amid the recently elevated oil prices, we believe externalbalances and growth will remain

resilient, as Malaysia is a net energy exporter. Hence, Nomura Economists have maintained

their 2026F GDP growth forecast materially higher at 5.2% compared with the consensus

estimate of 4.5%. However, the MYR depreciated by 2.0% vs the CNY, on a m-m basis. On