European Steel: Summary of new European Steel Safeguards effective today. Directionally positive, waiting for pricing power recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Steel: Summary of new European Steel Safeguards effective today. Directionally positive, waiting for pricing power recovery

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 01 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Figure 1: European Steel: JPM EBITDA estimates vs BBG Con for FY’26-28

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Pricing as of midday July 1, 2026

Directionally positive for European Steel pricing recovery

although impact unlikely immediate

The wider market does not expect a material and immediate price recovery from 1 July

activation of TRQ, as downstream continues to run down excess inventories build-up

from Q4’25 and buyers may take time to re-assess quota utilization. European steel

pricing has been trending sideways since Apr’26 at ~€650-680/t and the market is

entering into a seasonally quieter period. We therefore expect price to remain stable

through the summer, with an inflection in pricing likely to take place from late Q3 and

Q4’26 as buyers begin the next restocking cycle and new contract negotiations where

domestic producers begin to have stronger negotiating power. Our JPM base case

European steel price forecast sees HRC supported at ~€700/t between Q3’26-Q4’27.

Table 2: JPM European Steel Price Forecasts

€/t

Q1'26A Q2'26E Q3'26E Q4'26E CY'26E Q1'27E Q2'27E Q3'27E Q4'27E CY'27E Spot

Carbon Steel

EU HRC 662 670 700 700 683 700 700 700 700 700 680

EU Plates 728 725 750 750 738 750 750 750 750 750 765

Stainless Steel

EU CR base 574 590 650 700 629 750 750 775 800 769 486

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Demand recovery, residual pool usage & indirect steel imports

the key risks to watch for

• Demand recovery remains the binding constraint: European PMI data has held