The Runway in Motion – 78 Deliveries in June: Strong Q2 but Tough Q3 Base

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The Runway in Motion – 78 Deliveries in June: Strong Q2 but Tough Q3 Base

EUROPE | Aerospace & Defense Electronics EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

The Runway in Motion — 78 Deliveries in June: TRIM - June 26 snapshot

Strong Q2 but Tough Q3 Base JunAirbus26 deliveries a/c unit78 24%yoy

In this Jun-26 edition of TRIM, we forecast 78 deliveries at Airbus, up 24% yoy. Q2 26 226 33%

First flights at 73 are up 24% yoy, above our expectations for 70. All in all, First flights a/c unit yoy

Airbus - Jun 26 73 24%

deliveries YTD are now up 11% yoy and first flights are up 12%. These are solid Boeing - Jun 26 53 15%

numbers, and likely contributed to the recent rally in Airbus share, and should Airbus - H1 26 374 12%

Boeing - H1 26 303 23%

lead to solid EBIT momentum in Q2. However, we flag that Q3 faces a tough Engine delivered value (list price $m)

comp base with 212 first flights and 201 deliveries recorded in Q3 25. H1 26 yoy

MTU 727 4%

Safran 5,080 23%

We estimate Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in June, +24% yoy. In detail, we expect deliveries of 72 . Rolls-Royce 1,659 17%

narrowbodies (8 A220 and 64 A320neo) and 6 widebodies (6 A350). This would be up 24% yoy, Source: Jefferies

particularly driven by the A320 deliveries up 21 a/c, the A350 up 1 a/c, while A220 deliveries are

down 4 a/c, and the A330s down 3 a/c. YTD deliveries would now be up 11% with 9% growth in

deliveries needed over H2 to reach the 870 delivery guide. Within this strong delivery performance,

we include a total of 22 deliveries to China, coming on top of the 34 already reported over Jan-May.

In total, deliveries to China now represent 16.5% of Airbus YTD deliveries, roughly in line with 2025

share (17% of all deliveries to China, with 55 deliveries over H1, 18% of the total). We thus believe that