The Viewpoint: Investors’ questions on our capex super-cycle thesis

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The Viewpoint: Investors’ questions on our capex super-cycle thesis

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July 1, 2026 05:25 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMAsia Economics | Asia Pacific Chetan Ahya

Chief Asia Economist

The Viewpoint: Investors’ Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.comRobin Xing +852 2239-7812

Chief China Economist

Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511

questions on our capex super- Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.

Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economistcycle thesis Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8272

We have been in active discussions with investors on our thesis Morgan Stanley Asia Limited

Jonathan Cheung

Economistof a capex super-cycle. The discussions regard how broad this

Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652

capex cycle is across sectors and geographies, what the

Kelly Wang

implications for inflation are, and how long this cycle can last. Economist

Kelly.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0891

In this report, we address the key questions which have emerged from our recent Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

client conversations related to our thesis on Asia’s industrial and capex super-cycle. Sudhanshu Agarwal

Economist

1) The capex and industrial super-cycle is just driven by AI, isn’t it? Sudhanshu.Agarwal@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-4568

AI is a key driver but energy, defense, and efforts to onshore industrial supply chains

are equally important in driving this capex super-cycle. In addition to rising domestic

capex, Asia’s industrial super-cycle is also driven by a sharp, broad-based rise in

exports. Semis exports are super strong but non-semis exports are growing at their

strongest pace since the mid-2000s (ex-base effects), with strength across almost

all end-use segments.

2) Surely, AI spending must be the biggest driver with the largest delta tin this