Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 1, 2026 07:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MMahanagar Gas Ltd | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6719

What’s Changed

Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGAS.NS) From To

Price Target Rs1,491.00 Rs1,421.00

Base Case Rs1,491.00 Rs1,421.00

Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGAS.NS, MAHGL IN)

Updated Components

EPS India Oil & Gas | India

Investment Thesis Stock Rating Overweight

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Industry View In-Line

Price target Rs1,421.00

Shr price, close (Jul 1, 2026) Rs1,162.00

Risk Reward for Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGAS.NS) has been 52-Week Range Rs1,586.90-900.00

updated. Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)** 73.66 74.88 79.72 86.65

Reason for change Prior EPS (Rs)** 81.75 76.61 81.11 -

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

We mark our estimates to market, updating for annual filings and management framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

commentary. We keep our volume estimates largely unchanged and expect 8.6% e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

volume CAGR over F26-F29e. We expect EBITDA/scm to remain around Rs8

(unchanged) over F26-F29. We increase F27e capex to Rs12bn from Rs10.8bn per

management guidance. We also introduce F29 estimates.

The above changes have decreased our EPS estimates ~2% each for F27 and F28.

Our new base case value and price target is Rs1,421/share (vs. Rs1,491). We lower our

terminal growth assumption 1ppt, to 4%, to reflect a more conservative long-term

outlook. However, our cash flow projections are modestly higher, so the decrease in

our price target is just 5%. This does not alter our positive view and we remain

Overweight.

Our bull and bear case values remain unchanged.