US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

研报英文原文证据摘录

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Momentum Short were among the top-performing baskets, while Semis and Electrification

underperformed. UKX -0.2%, SX5E -0.7%, SXXP -0.4%, DAX +0.2%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings,

Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30am ET. Factory Orders, Durable/Cap Goods Orders

(revision) at 10am ET.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: N/A

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Canada) PMIs at 9:30am ET. (China) RatingDog

China PMI Composite and Services at 9:45pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Market Intelligence will not be publishing July 2 – July 6.

The main trading theme today was the broad selloff in Semis and Memory, with the JPM Momentum

L/S pair falling 4.1% (a 2.3z downside move). The debate we’ve been hearing today is whether Meta’s

headlines represent a narrative shift in hyperscaler CapEx spending and AI compute demand, or

whether positioning and broader de-grossing played a bigger role in the selloff. Our view leans more

toward the latter, with commentary during the upcoming earnings season becoming critical in assessing

whether there are fundamental shifts. Positioning Intelligence flagged the potential for active de-

grossing into late July: “1) we’ll soon be past the main index rebalancing events, 2) the starting levels of

gross flows and leverage are at highs (long and short additions over the past four weeks have been at

the +2z level), and 3) July is approaching, during which we’ve seen HF de-grossing in each of the past

five years (typically -1z to -3z moves).” Moreover, with Semis and memory positioning both near the

100th percentile (as of last Friday’s data from Positioning Intelligence), today’s pullback could represent