Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Nestle SA (NESN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Organic Sales Growth (%) 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.9

Underlying Trading Profit Margin (%) 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Further portfolio change optionality RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Sustainable organic sales growth exceeding +5% Continued portfolio change improving LT

Margin and ROIC expansion growth outlook Sales / 90,243

ESG factors: water risk given agriculture's role in Improving execution accelerating OSG to >4% Revenue 87,632 90,533

water depletion; product quality; Health & sustainably (SFr, mn) 89,005

Wellness Lower reinvestment driving higher margins

Input cost pressures easing

18,403

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 16,160 18,782

(SFr, mn)

0-10% India Weaker demand in categories like pet, coffee, 18,079

0-10% Japan nutrition

0-10% MEA Potential price roll back in DMs

14,613

0-10% Mainland China Reversal of commodity price moderation EBIT

12,621 14,742 0-10% UK Strengthening of CHF vs major currencies, (SFr, mn)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland particularly USD 14,134 10-20% China and India Iran-conflict demand pressures

10-20% Latin America 4.48

20-30% Europe ex UK EPS

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (SFr) 4.10 4.54 30-40% North America

4.41

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 71%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1x

ROE

HF Sector Net Exposure 0.2% 29.7 35.3

MS ALPHA MODELS (%) 32.4

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

held with MSPB. Information may be 3/5 3 Month exposures inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates MOST Horizon

trends.