Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Nestle SA (NSRGY.PK)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Organic Sales Growth (%) 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.9

Underlying Trading Profit Margin (%) 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Further portfolio change optionality RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Sustainable organic sales growth exceeding +5% Continued portfolio change improving LT

Margin and ROIC expansion growth outlook Sales / 90,243

ESG factors: water risk given agriculture's role in Improving execution accelerating OSG to >5% Revenue 88,341 92,126

water depletion; product quality; Health & sustainably (SFr, mn) 89,967

Wellness Lower reinvestment driving higher margins

Input cost pressures easing

18,403

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 18,080 18,834

(SFr, mn)

0-10% India Weaker demand in categories like pet, coffee, 18,313

0-10% Japan nutrition

0-10% MEA Potential price roll back in DMs

0-10% Mainland China Reversal of commodity cost moderation 14,613

EBIT 0-10% UK Strengthening of CHF vs major currencies, Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (SFr, mn) APAC, ex Japan, Mainland particularly USD 10-20% China and India consensus data for this metric Iran conflict demand pressures

10-20% Latin America

20-30% Europe ex UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 4.48 30-40% North America 4.42 4.65

(SFr)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 99.5% 4.52

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 0.9x

HF Sector Net Exposure -0.5% ROE

29.7 35.3

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund (%) 32.4

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.