Daily Economic Briefing: Criss-cross oil sauce

研报英文原文证据摘录

Daily Economic Briefing: Criss-cross oil sauce

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

01 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Criss-cross oil sauce

• Oil prices have declined quickly with hopes of a return to normal in global oil Economic and Policy Research

flows, relieving a key source of inflationary pressure and also removing a key Alex Gallin

drag on consumer spending heading into midyear. We remain constructive on (1-212) 270-5492

2H26 growth, but also still see three notes of caution. First, the Middle East alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

conflict is not over and there is a risk that hostilities could restart, as JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

underscored today by Trump indicating he is still open to “all-out war.” Maia Crook

Second, with negotiations between the US and Iran seemingly stuck, the flow (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

of oil through the Strait remains very depressed, suggesting the fall in crude JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

prices is still being supported by an unsustainable draw in inventories. Third,

Nora Szentivanyi

we expect inflation to remain sticky, partly as retail margins are keeping (44-20) 7134-7544

product prices elevated. nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Eastbound Strait of Hormuz traffic and spot oil price Joseph Lupton

# ships, 7d mav $/bbl (1-212) 834-5735

Cargo crossings 150 Crude crossings 160 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Spot dated Brent 100

0 60

Jan 1 Feb 5 Mar 12 Apr 16 May 21 Jun 25

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

• Notwithstanding the elevated inflation that has shifted central banks in a

hawkish direction, market expectations are still for less than 25bp of hikes

globally (ex. China). Speaking at the ECB Forum today, Fed Chair Warsh