2Q Preview: Innovation Inflection

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview: Innovation Inflection

Italy | Food & HPC

Intercos EquityJulyResearch2, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q Preview: Innovation Inflection

2Q results (4 Aug) should deliver solid +4.5% growth (cons 6.6%) after a year RATING BUY

of sales decline, as the industry's growth push starts to deliver benefits for PRICE €12.96^

key innovation partner ICOS. We think Makeup and Hair & Body can inflect PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €15.10 (€15.30) | +17%

positively, and EBITDA should sequentially improve to €45.4mn (16.0% 52W HIGH-LOW €13.40 - €10.42

margin), down 50bps YoY and 3% shy of cons. A big H2 needed, but a better FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 54.0% | 1.10

underlying market and easier comp base are on the co's side. PT moves to MARKET CAP €1.2B | $1.4B

€15.10, retain Buy. TICKER ICOS IM

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Makeup to improve sequentially, but order book slow to materialise. We expect order book

strength to drive the inflection in 2H26, with makeup slowly but surely improving. The division

laps 14% growth, with JEFe 3.5% LFL vs cons 6.6%. It should benefit from the ongoing inflection FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in the wider makeup category, as innovation investment from brand owners accelerates the 2026 2027 2026 2027

cycle. This will help grow volumes and drive better mix in H2. REV NM NM -1% +5%

EPS -2% -2% -3% -8%

Customer mix still impacting skincare. We expect an improved but still slightly negative

performance for skincare in Q2. Underlying market growth has firmed up, with encouraging 2026 (EUc) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

results in China. But multinationals, which typically produce skincare in-house, rather than EPS -- -- -- -- 71.63

emerging brands, have been driving most of the improvement. Chinese local players such as PREV 72.90