UniCredit: Strong commercial momentum, further guidance upgrade - Placing UCG on Positive Catalyst Watch

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UniCredit: Strong commercial momentum, further guidance upgrade - Placing UCG on Positive Catalyst Watch

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

02 July 2026

UniCredit Overweight

CRDI.MI, UCG IM

Strong commercial momentum, further guidance Price (01 Jul 26):€78.68

upgrade - Placing UCG on Positive Catalyst Watch ▲Price Target (Dec-27):€93.00 Prior (Dec-27):€89.00

Ahead of Q2 results, we upgrade our EPS by 4-5% in 2027-28e, mainly driven by

higher revenues - better trends in fees & commissions, Generali dividends with our European Banks

higher NII also reflecting the rate hikes (June and Sept). Our 2026e EPS is broadly Delphine Lee AC

unchanged due to the negative impact from hedging costs on strategic stakes in Q2, (44-20) 7134-3971

and some small additional restructuring charges and litigation provisions. For Q2, delphine.x.lee@jpmorgan.com

we expect strong commercial momentum on volumes and fees with our PBT Kian Abouhossein

estimate ~5% above BBG consensus adjusted for the estimated hedging losses of (44-20) 7134-4575

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

~€0.25bn), litigation provisions and Generali dividends. In our view, full year net

Amit Ranjan

profit guidance is likely to be upgraded slightly to > €11bn with Q2 results and

(44-20) 7134-4576

€11.5bn by Q3 results (JPMe €11.4bn) and we place UCG on positive Catalyst amit.x.ranjan@jpmorgan.com

Watch. With UCG also still far from the ~60% threshold for a merger for CBK (for J.P. Morgan Securities plc

more analysis, see our recent note here), there is a strong incentive to outperform

on standalone targets to re-rate the stock further in our view. We remain OW UCG Specialist Sales contact details:

trading at 8.2x PE, 1.8x NAV for RoNAV 23.4% in 2028e. Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

European Financials