Simply Good Foods: Recalibrating for Reality - Model Update

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Simply Good Foods: Recalibrating for Reality - Model Update

d 350bps y/y on protein and cocoa

inflation, and sales & marketing spend as a percentage of sales declined 200bps y/y. Full-year

Chart 1 - Retail sales trends are decelerating

guidance was narrowed to sales +9% and Adj. EBITDA +4.5% at the mid-point. across Simply's portfolio

Estimate Revisions: Our F26 estimates are largely unchanged. We lower our F27 sales growth 60 Retail Trends ($ Growth y/y)

40estimates to account for upcoming resets, distribution losses, and the elasticity impact associated

with the upcoming price increase (September). We now expect Atkins to be down 12%, OWYN 20

down 15%, and Quest up 2%, putting full-year consolidated sales down 3% (from 1.5% prior). Down 0

the P&L, we expect gross margin to be up 100bps y/y given pricing and procurement work, and -20-40

marketing at 10% of sales, resulting in Adj. EBITDA up 3% y/y, at $229m (from $242m). There are Simply Good Foods L52WAtkins L26W L13WOwynL4w Quest

a lot of moving parts; we're watching trends closely for a better sense. .Source: Jefferies, Nielsen US Full View + Conv WE 6/13/2026

18-Month Outlook - Positive. Returning CEO Joe Scalzo seems to have a good sense of what needs

to be done to reinvigorate Simply's portfolio. Strengthening the economic model of the business

via cost reduction and pricing, working on fewer and bigger initiatives, and reinvesting should put

the business on a firmer footing in 2028.

Our Thesis & Valuation: Growth and margin pressures (category exposure, competition, inflation)

are known, but valuation (6x FY3 EBITDA) has over-corrected for a portfolio positioned at the

intersection of several consumer mega-trends. Our $17 PT is based on 7.5x our F28E Adj. EBITDA

of $236m.