Ireland Banks: Revolut has c.80% penetration among Irish adult population. Why are incumbent bank franchises holding up?

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Ireland Banks: Revolut has c.80% penetration among Irish adult population. Why are incumbent bank franchises holding up?

Viewpoint |

30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 35 pages

Ireland Banks

Revolut has c.80% penetration among Irish adult population. Why are

incumbent bank franchises holding up?

Borja Ramirez Segura AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7508-0206

Investor concern around Irish banks remains focused on deposit borja.ramirez@citi.com

competition, particularly from Revolut, other fintech challengers and the Anand Dembleproposed Irish Savings & Investment Account (SIA). While these risks are

real, our analysis suggests they remain manageable. Most importantly, Irish +44-20-7986-4056

banks have maintained stable mortgage, deposit and current account anand.gopal.demble@citi.com

market shares despite Revolut reaching c.80% penetration of the adult

population. As a result, we see limited risk to earnings in the short to

medium term, and maintain our Buy ratings on both AIB and BIRG. We

prefer AIB given its more resilient deposit dynamics and better earnings

outlook, despite modest downside risk to 1H26 consensus NII.

Revolut shows high customer adoption in Ireland, but limited impact on primary

banking relationships — Revolut has reached c.3.4mn customers in Ireland (c.80%

of the adult population), yet only 3% of Irish consumers identify it as their main

banking provider. Revolut’s savings and investment balances have reached c.€3bn.

While competition for deposits is increasing, there remains limited evidence of

meaningful disruption to incumbent banking relationships.

Incumbent bank franchises remain resilient despite intensifying competition —

AIB and BIRG accounted for 41% and 33% of consumers' main current accounts,

respectively, with shares broadly unchanged since 2023 (page 8).