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NHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts Expenditures Between Categories: USA | Healthcare Services
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NHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts Expenditures Between Categories: USA | Healthcare Services
USA | Healthcare Services EquityJuneResearch30, 2026
Exhibit 3 - Demographics, ACA SubsidyNHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts
Expirations, & OBBBA Cuts Drive Weakness In
Medicaid & Private Health InsuranceExpenditures Between Categories
CMS released this week its 2026 report, which forecasts National Health
Expenditures (NHE) to grow at a 5.4% CAGR from 2025 to 2034 to nearly $9T,
with H/C spending growing to 20.6% of GDP by 2034. Our analysis of the data
shows that CMS revised its NHE estimates ($) vs last year's report by -0.1%,
with notable increases in spend expectations for home health and physician &
clinical, in contrast to a large cut for SNFs. See accompanying charts for details.
US National Health Expenditures Projected to Grow at a 5.4% CAGR From '25 to '34.
Overall spending on healthcare in the US is projected to grow to $9T in 2034, which represents .Source: Jefferies, CMS•
a CAGR of 5.4%.
The projected increase in NHE translates to healthcare spending representing 20.6% of US•
GDP in 2034, up from 18.4% in 2025.
CMS expects NHE to grow +7.3% in 2025, slightly up from +7.2% in 2024.•
CMS projects NHE spending growth to decelerate beginning in 2026, driven by eAPTC•
expiration (-3.7MM lives), followed by Medicaid cuts from the OBBBA, hitting expenditures in
2027-2028, alongside slower expected growth in the utilization of health care services and
goods.
NHE growth is expected to average near +5.2% from 2029 to 2034, driven by Medicare spend•
trending at +7.3% during this period, which reflects the decelerating enrollment growth of the
baby boom generation beginning in 2029, the aging of current beneficiaries, and the expiration
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