JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: SGRO LN/ PLD US, oil service note (SUBC NO/ SPM IM), PRX NA note

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: SGRO LN/ PLD US, oil service note (SUBC NO/ SPM IM), PRX NA note

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

30 June 2026

demand environment from new residential construction remains challenging. Against this backdrop, we forecast Q2

revenues of Skr31.55bn and Adj EBIT of Skr605mn or +1.9% margin, which includes $27mn/Skr260mn positive COGS

benefit from IEEPA tariffs. We are now 14% above the Q2 adj EBIT consensus, which is entirely due to our estimate

accounting for the gain, excluding which we would be 35% below. With this note, we roll forward our price target to

Dec’27 (now based on 2028E) from Jun’27 (based on 2027E), which together with a higher share count falls to Skr34

from Skr54 prior. We now value Electrolux at 8x EV/Adj EBIT vs. 9.5x prior, reflecting higher risks to 2028E given

limited visibility.

• Fed independence day, barely - Michael Feroli here

• Today’s Supreme Court decision, allowing Fed Governor Cook to stay on in office while challenging her dismissal,

removes one tail risk to the economic outlook. Since the next governor whose term expires isn’t until early 2028 (Powell)

it now looks like, barring several unexpected early retirements, the risk of monetary policy becoming excessively

politicized has diminished further today. The case was decided on a 5-4 vote.

• As a quasi-private entity, central bank independence is built on the traditions of the Bank of North America, and the First

and Second Banks of the United States. As Roberts points out, the first of these institutions even preceded the

Constitution. However, at several points in this discussion, Roberts conflates central bank independence with monetary

policy independence. It is debatable whether these predecessor institutions conducted some form of monetary policy.