Thai Hospitals: Turning the corner, slowly

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Thai Hospitals: Turning the corner, slowly

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 June 2026

Thai Hospitals

Turning the corner, slowly

SetHealth is flat YTD and has underperformed the SET by ~25% (half of which Consumer, Healthcare

ACwas due to DELTA). While we believe 2Q26 is set to be another soft quarter, we Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA

think earnings risk from the Middle East conflict has largely played out, with travel (66-2) 684-2679

trends already showing signs of normalization. Looking ahead, we believe Thai kae.pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

patient revenue is likely to remain structurally weaker than in the past due to JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

affordability and insurance pressures, although growth should remain volatile on Yen Voo, CFA, CA

base effects. Within the space, we prefer BH (momentum) over BDMS (value). (60-3) 2718 0914

yen.voo@jpmorgan.com

• 2Q26 preview – BH to outshine BDMS. We forecast core net profit growth JPMorganX) Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-

of 3% for BH and a 3% decline for BDMS, reflecting a weak quarter for both

operators due to the lingering impact of the Middle East conflict, although the

disruption has proven less severe than initially feared. For BH, we expect

revenue growth of around 2%, in line with management guidance, alongside

a 60bps y/y expansion in EBITDA margin driven by a more favourable patient

mix and continued operating efficiency gains. For BDMS, we expect revenue

growth of approximately 1%, with EBITDA margin contracting by 20bps as

patient volume growth remains soft relative to ongoing capacity expansion,

resulting in lower asset utilization.

• Middle East conflict impact – the worst behind us? We believe the earnings

impact from the Middle East conflict likely bottomed in 2Q26, as travel