Enphase Energy (ENPH.O): Takeaways from Investor Call with ENPH

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Enphase Energy (ENPH.O): Takeaways from Investor Call with ENPH

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30 Jun 2026 04:10:42 ET │ 13 pages

Enphase Energy (ENPH.O)

Takeaways from Investor Call with ENPH

CITI'S TAKE

We hosted a call with Zach Freedman, Senior Director and Head of IR. The

U.S. market remains largely soft near-term (~30% Y/Y decline in 2026) with

1Q as the trough for sell through. In Europe, solar sales appear to be cooling Neutral / High Risk

off post the Iran conflict, but storage sales in Netherlands and France Price (29 Jun 26 16:00) US$48.34

continue to be strong. On SST, ENPH continues to build out its offering

Target price US$31.00targeting data center and utility applications, with active customer

engagement across multiple GW scale RFPs. The solution leverages GaN- Expected share price return -35.9%

based architecture and is positioned at a lower cost with high reliability, Expected dividend yield 0.0%

though it is still in testing and certification stages. Overall, we believe the

Expected total return -35.9%core business continues to face a challenging fundamental backdrop, with

meaningful downside risk to FY27 consensus revenue estimates. Market Cap US$6,371M

Nevertheless, enthusiasm around the data center opportunity is likely to

continue driving volatility in the shares.

U.S. Update — The U.S. market is expected to be down ~30% Y/Y driven partly by Price Performance

pull-forward effects in late 2025. 1Q26, which tends to be down ~10-20% Q/Q, (RIC: ENPH.O, BB: ENPH US)

represents the trough in sell through, with gradual improvement expected

throughout the year supported by commercial volumes and European demand, per

the company. Channel inventories are in the process of normalizing, with

manageable destocking dynamics and no material sell-through disruptions. For