Marketing Feedback on Weichai: High Conviction Amid the Noise

研报英文原文证据摘录

Marketing Feedback on Weichai: High Conviction Amid the Noise

ASIA-PACIFIC excl. Japan | Machinery

Weichai Power EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEMarketing Feedback on Weichai: High

RATING BUYConviction Amid the Noise

PRICE Rmb26.19^

We met with 50+ investors across Asia over the past two weeks, with

Rmb44.20 (Rmb40.40) |

discussions largely centered on Weichai. As major tech players step up PRICE TARGET | % TO PT +69%

AI capex and global peers raise AIDC guidance, our conviction on Weichai 52W HIGH-LOW Rmb36.34 - Rmb13.65

has further strengthened. The power-energy build-out is becoming a multi- FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 53.0% | 445.99

product franchise, not a single diesel-backup story. Investor debate focused MARKET CAP RMB228.5B | $33.6B

on the earnings ramp from gas gensets and SOFC, legacy headwinds, and TICKER 000338 CH

valuation. Details below. ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Is the gas genset ramp achievable? We expect Weichai to deliver c.200 units in 2026 and RATING BUY

around 1k units in 2027, with execution risk focused more on overseas channel ramp-up and

TICKER 2338 HK

customer onboarding than on the product itself. The economics are compelling, in our view,

with ASPs of ~$600k/MW (4x diesel gensets) and estimated GPM of ~45%. Incremental capital PRICE HK$33.72^

requirements are limited, as gas gensets share much of the manufacturing process with diesel. HK$50.80 (HK$46.40) | PRICE TARGET | % TO PT

Execution is tracking ahead of plan, with deliveries pulled forward to 3Q26. The key variable to +51%

watch is the pace of initial deliveries to end customers.

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

Is SOFC a real earnings driver or a post-2028 option? We see SOFC moving closer to a

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